Stats

 

I’ve been thinking about doing a particular sermon for a while, and then someone in the church really pushed me into doing kinda what I was already thinking of. I’ve touched on this topic before, but never so completely. This will be a little different sort of sermon. It is really about the statistical likelihood that any one person would be able to fulfill all the prophesy of the OT, unless that person really was the Messiah.

 

When I talk about this subject I need you to know first about statistics. You know, I hope that the statistical likelihood of say, someone rolling a 5 on a 6 sided dice is 1/6. The chances that someone would roll two 5’s in a row would be one in 6 times 6, or one chance in 36. The chances of rolling three 5’s in a row are 1/6 times 1/6 times 1/6. Or by my figuring, 1/216. Now the chances we are going to be talking in terms of one person fulfilling even several of the prophesies about the Messiah are much more remote. In fact, we have to use a little different math notation. One chance in 10 is denoted by 1 x 10 to the first power. One chance in 100 is denoted by 1 x 10 to the second power. Each increase in the number above the 10 is another zero on the end. One chance in a thousand is 1x10 to the third power.

 

Okay, now that we sort of have that straight, I need to illustrate what we’re talking about. And for this, I usually use myself as an example. What are the odds that someone born in Modesto, California, would be preaching here today. Modesto is a medium sized suburb of Sacramento California. I’d guess that chances are one in maybe 20,000. Maybe that’s low. It is not a big city, but not a small one either. I couldn’t find out how many towns there are the US; that would have been helpful to know. So I’m just guessing one chance in 20,000. Fairly remote. So let’s narrow it further. What are the chances that someone born in Modesto, but raised in Thousand Oaks would be here today? Thousand Oaks is another suburb, but of LA. So that narrows it down a little further. In fact, none of my siblings were born in Modesto and grew up in T.O. They grew up in T.O., but were born other places. So the chances that someone here would be born in Modesto, and raised in TO, and I simply guessing here, would be perhaps 1/20,000 times 1/20,000. Which gives us a total chance of 1 in 400,000,000. That’s pretty slim. We could do other things, like born in Modesto, raised in TO, is an eagle scout. Has blue eyes. Graduated from Pepperdine University and Fuller Seminary. Eventually the probability would tell you that in the whole world, there is only one person, or less than 1 person, that would randomly fit all the categories we are using to describe this person. Eventually, in the whole world, we could narrow it down so that it really is only possible that it is me that we are talking about. The prophesies in the OT are so specific, and there are so many of them, that really only one person could fulfill them all. The prophesies eliminate everyone but the Messiah, eliminate everyone but Jesus.

 

The overarching texts for today are a couple; John 1:43-45 “The next day Jesus decided to leave for Galilee. Finding Philip, he said to him, ‘Follow me.’ Philip, like Andrew and Peter, was from the town of Bethsaida. Philip found Nathanael and told him, ‘We have found the one Moses wrote about in the Law, and about whom the prophets also wrote—Jesus of Nazareth, the son of Joseph.” And then this text from Luke 24:44, from when Jesus was with the disciples after His resurrection. “He said to them, ‘This is what I told you while I was still with you: Everything must be fulfilled that is written about me in the Law of Moses, the Prophets and the Psalms.”

And lastly, Luke 7:18ff. John’s disciples told him about all these things. Calling two of them,  19 he sent them to the Lord to ask, “Are you the one who was to come, or should we expect someone else?”

20 When the men came to Jesus, they said, “John the Baptist sent us to you to ask, ‘Are you the one who was to come, or should we expect someone else?’”

21 At that very time Jesus cured many who had diseases, sicknesses and evil spirits, and gave sight to many who were blind.  22 So he replied to the messengers, “Go back and report to John what you have seen and heard: The blind receive sight, the lame walk, those who have leprosy are cured, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, and the good news is preached to the poor.  23 Blessed is the man who does not fall away on account of me.” [1]

 

So given that everything must be fulfilled, we’re going to take a quick, probably too quick, look at the prophesies about Jesus, and whether or not they were fulfilled. Some prophesies were harder than others; there were people who preached good news to the poor for instance, (Like me having blue eyes) but raising someone from the dead is considerably less probable. But before we get too far into that, let’s pray.

 

So it is important enough for both Philip, one of the Twelve, and Jesus Himself to note that the OT prophesy has to be fulfilled. It is the mark of prophesy, genuine prophesy from God, that it come true. We know many televangelists are not real because they prophesy, and then the prophesy fails to happen. It is the mark of the Messiah that all the prophesy about Him come true. And there is a lot of prophesy about the Messiah in the OT. There is a lot so that people would know that the Messiah can’t possibly be anyone else. What Jesus does points squarely to who Jesus is. There has been a lot of statistical work done on the chances that someone might fulfill some of the prophesies about the Messiah. So let’s look at some of the OT prophesy, and then we can see where Jesus fulfills the prophesy and ultimately proves Jesus was the Messiah of God.

 

Lest someone say that Jesus did His stuff, and then the OT was written to conform to what He did, I would say that we just have to look at the Dead Sea Scrolls to see that clearly all this prophesy existed before, hundreds of years before Jesus was born. The Dead Sea Scrolls have been carbon dated to 300 years to about 100 years before Jesus birth. And all the books of the OT are there, at least in part, except one. And that one, Esther, was kept out because it listed different feast days than the group that kept the Dead Sea Scrolls celebrated. So it was left out. Anyway, I just wanted you to know for sure that the OT was absolutely written prior to Jesus arrival and ministry.

 

So there are lots of prophesies about the Messiah. I am going to choose to pick several that seem to me to indicate that this specific man, Jesus, the one who lived and died and lived again, is the exact person all the OT, those thousands of years of waiting and hoping lead up to. You know, even after the Jews had been restored to the land of their fathers following their exile in Babylon, even when they came back they knew they would be unable to fulfill the commands of the laws. Heck, even before Jerusalem fell, Jeremiah was talking about a Savior, talking and waiting for Jesus.

 

There are a number of prophesies that don’t seem to be statistically relevant by themselves, but when group together, they give a complete picture of Jesus. Let me give you some of them. He would feel forsaken by God, He would be thirsty, mocked and insulted, and soldiers would cast lots for His clothing, all from Psalm 22. He would be accused by a false witness, Psalm 27. He would be scourged, (beaten badly) and spat upon, Isaiah 50. He would be rejected and insulted, would suffer vicariously, both from Isaiah 53. Also from the same chapter, He would be silent when accused, and would be buried amongst the wealthy people. You see, these prophesies by themselves could be just about anyone. But slowly they begin to build a picture of Christ. Any one of these prophesies have maybe a ¼ chance of happening; some perhaps less frequent, some more frequent. So beyond these prophesies I want to get to the big prophesies that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Jesus was the Messiah the Jews had been waiting for throughout their history.

 

The first big prophesy I’ve chosen is that the Messiah was to be born of a virgin. Clearly this denotes an event beyond the grasp of humanity. It was also prophesied that the Messiah would be born in Bethlehem, Micah 5:1-5. But let’s face it, many people have been born in Bethlehem over the centuries. It is not a big town, but many generations have been born there. So statistically, that Jesus was born in Bethlehem is statistically important, but not as important as being born of a virgin. That prophesy alone, and its fulfillment in Christ, push the statistical odds beyond the number of people who have ever lived on the planet. When Christ was born He fulfilled an extraordinary number of prophesies: Born in Bethlehem, like we said. Born of a virgin, Isaiah 7:14. Of the tribe of Judah, Genesis 49:10. Related to King David; 1 Chronicles 17:11-14. In Jesus birth we have many of the most significant prophesies fulfilled. That He will be Immanuel, God with us, from Isaiah 7, that He was the Son to be given, from Isaiah 9. Born a king, from Jeremiah 30, and that there would be a massacre of infants surrounding His birth, from Jeremiah 31. Even the flight into Egypt to avoid Herod is from Hosea 11. All those prophesies were fulfilled in Jesus birth. Perhaps this should have been a sermon around Christmas, because of the significance of Jesus birth and all the ramifications, implications and prophesy involved. But here we are.

 

So statistically, we’re getting more and more remote that anyone would randomly fulfill these prophesies and be mistaken for the Messiah when in fact, He was not. At this point, probably an illustration would be helpful. We’ve covered about 10 of the prophesies about Jesus. I want you to take Statistically, the chances that anyone would fulfill these is like this: Imagine the world is covered in dimes. Not just covered in them, but covered in them up to the moon. Nothing but dimes. One of those dimes is painted red. You have one chance to choose one dime. That statistically speaking, is about the chances that anyone would randomly fulfill the prophesies we have talked about so far. But of course, there are a lot more prophesies. So let’s take a look at them. Remember, just like I was born in Modesto, raised in TO, graduated from Pepperdine and Fuller Seminary, the purpose is to get so specific that the Messiah could only be one person. It could only be Christ Jesus. So let’s push on for more prophesies.

 

For the next section I thought we could look at the prophesies concerning what Jesus did: the first being what Jesus pointed out to John, that the blind see and the deaf hear, found in Isaiah 29, confirmed several times over in John 9, Matt 11 and so forth. Also, the Spirit of the Lord was to be upon Him, Isa 11 and 42, and we see this most clearly in Jesus baptism. Isaiah 35 also talks about the blind and deaf, but adds lame leaping for joy and mute folks talking. Mark 7 details the healing of a mute man, and of course we have many instances of Jesus healing the lame, starting with the man in Mark 2 who was lowered through the roof of the house where Jesus was. You hopefully remember that story. On the other side, that He was sold out for 30 pieces of silver is detailed in Zechariah 11, and fulfilled in Judas Iscariot’s betrayal of Jesus in the garden of Gethsemane. In fact, that He would be betrayed by a friend was prophesied in Psalm 41 and 55. In many ways, Judas was an important character to have around Jesus. Maybe I’ll look into that further. I know people have written on Judas extensively. One more thing to read.

 

Let’s keep going. He will be a king known for His righteousness, according to Psalm 45. He is the promised Redeemer, according to Job 19. He will be the enthroned high priest, Zech 6, a prophet like Moses, Deut 18. Cursed on a tree, Deut 21. He will be zealous for God’s house, Psalm 69. He will be a light out of the darkness, Isaiah 9. He will be the Lamb slaughtered for us, Isa 53. Annointed to preach liberty, Isa 61. He will be the good Shepherd, according to Ezekial 21, confirmed in John 10. Triumphant entry into Jerusalem, Zech 9. His hands and feet will be pierced, Zech 12 and Psalm 22; of course is a reference to the crucifixion.  His resurrection comes from Psalm 16, 49 and 86. It’s all there.

 

So what are the chances that any one life could accommodate all this prophesy? Christian statisticians have been working on this for a while. There seemed to be for a while amongst atheists and agnostics a movement to say that the prophesies in the OT could point to just about anyone. So Christian statisticians decided to work on the problem, to see just how statistically likely it was that all the prophesies would be fulfilled. Turns out to be extremely unlikely. I’ve seen two figures; one is less chance than 1 in all the seconds in the universe since its inception however many billion years ago. But I heard that another figure that was a little higher. A French mathematician figured that fulfilling just 40 of the prophesies was 1 in 1x10 to the 157th power. That is a 1 followed by 157 zeros.

 

It gets bigger. Another mathematician, Peter Ruckman, has figured the odds of only 60 prophesies being fulfilled by the only person to claim be the Son of God, died on a tree on Calvary and who rose on the third day are astronomical. 1 in 1x10 895th power. That’s a 1 followed by 895 zeros. At that point you’re looking at the number of atoms in the universe. Remember the one red dime? The chances are about the same that of all those atoms you could reach in and pull out the one specific red atom.

I guess what’s I’m saying, and what these math guys are saying is that it is extremely unlikely that anyone could randomly fulfill the prophesies of the OT. The OT points directly to Jesus Christ, and it does so very specifically. The NT is very careful to point out all the prophesy that Jesus fulfills. The Holy Spirit wants people to know, without a doubt, that Jesus was who the Jews should have recognized as the Messiah.

 

Let’s pray.

 



[1]The New International Version, (Grand Rapids, MI: Zondervan Publishing House) 1984.